作者：Richard Russell
赚钱: 这40年来我最流行的作品莫过于“穷人，富人”。 因此我曾被许多企业组织要求重印此文。
赚钱不只是预测股票债券何时会上涨，也不只是计算公债基金几年后会翻番。绝大多数投资者赚钱离不开计划、学习和渴望。 我说之所以说“绝大多数投资者”。是因为如果你是史蒂芬斯皮尔伯格或比尔盖茨，你就用不着了解市场、生产、价格和利润等。你那只是个特别现象，你赚的钱也都是因为天分和能力。但是这种天才实在是凤毛麟角。
至于像我们这样的普通投资者，我们并非天才，所以我们应当有一个明确的投资计划。有鉴于此,我给出一些我们要想赚钱就必需知道的事。
1 、复利计算: 如今的世界里，想要生存，就必须有钱。但是想活得快乐，你必须有爱、健康 （包括头脑与身体） 、自由、智慧与金钱。当我教孩子理财时，我首先教他们“财富圣经“的用法。什么是财富圣经？很简单，一张复利计算表。
复利计算是发财致富的捷径。 复利计算安全、可靠、回报大，谁都能做。但想做好复利计算你需要如下条件：坚持不懈地省钱来存，并明白你在做什么和为什么这么做。如果按我说的做了，你还需要了解你是如何用复利计算赚到这些大钱的 。当然，你还需要时间让复利计算为你赚钱。请记住，这种方法需要时间。
但是这种方法还有两个弊端。其一显而易见—— 需要很多本钱，必须省吃俭用（而且存下的钱你就不能动了）。其二，这方法相当无聊。或者说赚钱之前都是很无聊的（大概要七八年）。然后，就很有趣了。事实上，它会变得相当吸引人。
为了强调复利的重要性，我就举出金融时报的特别研究。研究假设有一人B在19岁时创建了一个账户。连续7年，他每年都存入2000美元，利息10%。7年后，他就再也不存钱了，坐等利息。另一人A在26岁才开始存钱（这时B已经不存钱了），65岁之前他每年也都要存入2000美元（利息同样是10%）。研究结果不可思议。存钱更少的B,得到利息比存钱多得多的A还多。两人的不同是B比A早7年存钱，显然这早出的7年比额外多存钱的33年更有价值。
我建议你把这个研究告诉你的孩子。我就是以复利为生,所以我可以跟你打保票：“它行得通。”你可以这样买公债，买基金，买国库券或者5年期国家公债。
2、不亏钱：听起来很弱智，但相信我这没那么简单。如果你想发大财，你就不能亏钱，或者说亏大钱。很好笑吗？或许。但大多数人亏钱，就亏在投资失败、风险投资、交易失手或者熊市。近50年的投资经验告诉我，大多数人都会亏钱并因此错过好时机——无论是股市、期货、房地产、坏账、风险投资，还是自己的生意上。
3、穷富法则：在投资世界，成功者总是比普通人多出一个优点。那就是他们不需要市场。穷人和富人对钱都有自己的态度。
富有的投资者不需要市场，因为他们有自己的收入方式。他们的收入来自基金、公债、股票和房地产。换句话说，他们从不依靠市场赚钱。
富有的投资者对事物的实际价值烂熟于心。当公债价格便宜而利息很高时，他们买公债。当股价很低而收益很高时，他们买股票。房地产物超所值时，他们买房地产。当收藏品可以“捡漏”时，他们买收藏品。换句话说，成功投资者用钱买可升值的东西。
如果没有足够的价值和回报，富有的投资者会选择观望。他们完全等得起，因为时刻都有钱流入他们的账户。他们知道他们是在寻找机会，所以他们不介意等上几个月或几年（他们管这叫毅力）。
那穷人呢？他们总是有“赚钱”的压力，所以他们总是希望市场为他们做“一些事”。但不幸的是，市场不会这么做。当他们买不到涨幅超过1%-2%的股票时，他们就会去赌博或投资不可靠的公司（业务“严格保密”的那种）。
因为他们总是想让市场为他们而改变，所以他们注定失败。他们不明白事物的实际价值，所以总会多花冤枉钱。他们无法了解复利的用处，也不懂如何看待钱。他们没听过一句话“只有理解赚钱之乐的人，才会理解花钱之苦。” 所以他们就像典型美国人一样，总是负债累累。
他们总是卷入负债中。 因此, 他们感到很大压力——要付房贷、买冰箱、买车、买割草机。他们没有耐心，总是成为利益的牺牲品。他们告诉自己要快速赚钱，总是梦想着天降横财。最终，他们的钱浪费在交易市场上、浪费在风险投资上，甚至因愚蠢的投资方案付之东流。总而言之，这些“债奴”一辈子都在填补债务的无底洞。
但讽刺的是，如果一开始，他们严格控制花销，合理地投资。就会像富人一样，让钱就不断流入自己的口袋，他们就不会是可怜的失败者，而是财富的主人。
4、 价值观：对普通投资者而言，应当等超值的投资机会到来时再出手。我是这样认定一个超值的投资的（1）安全可靠； （2）有诱人回报； （3）有很好升的值空间。不过，至少长远看来，其他时候还是复利赚钱的方法更安全也更有利。
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Rich Man, Poor Man (The Power of Compounding)
by Richard Russell
Dow Theory Letters
Dow Theory Letters
Recently by Richard Russell: The Red Arrows
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Making money entails a lot more than predicting which way the stock or bond markets are heading or trying to figure which stock or fund will double over the next few years. For the great majority of investors, making money requires a plan, self-discipline and desire. I say, "for the great majority of people" because if you're a Steven Spielberg or a Bill Gates you don't have to know about the Dow or the markets or about yields or price/earnings ratios. You're a phenomenon in your own field, and you're going to make big money as a by-product of your talent and ability. But this kind of genius is rare.
For the average investor, you and me, we're not geniuses so we have to have a financial plan. In view of this, I offer below a few items that we must be aware of if we are serious about making money.
Rule 1: Compounding: One of the most important lessons for living in the modern world is that to survive you've got to have money. But to live (survive) happily, you must have love, health (mental and physical), freedom, intellectual stimulation – and money. When I taught my kids about money, the first thing I taught them was the use of the "money bible." What's the money bible? Simple, it's a volume of the compounding interest tables.
Compounding is the royal road to riches. Compounding is the safe road, the sure road, and fortunately, anybody can do it. To compound successfully you need the following: perseverance in order to keep you firmly on the savings path. You need intelligence in order to understand what you are doing and why. And you need a knowledge of the mathematics tables in order to comprehend the amazing rewards that will come to you if you faithfully follow the compounding road. And, of course, you need time, time to allow the power of compounding to work for you. Remember, compoundingonly works through time.
But there are two catches in the compounding process. The first is obvious – compounding may involve sacrifice (you can't spend it and still save it). Second, compounding is boring – b-o-r-i-n-g. Or I should say it's boring until (after seven or eight years) the money starts to pour in. Then, believe me, compounding becomes very interesting. In fact, it becomes downright fascinating!
In order to emphasize the power of compounding, I am including this extraordinary study, courtesy of Market Logic, of
A second investor (A) makes no contributions until age 26 (this is the age when investor B was finished with his contributions). Then A continues faithfully to contribute $2,000 every year until he's 65 (at the same theoretical 10% rate).
Now study the incredible results. B, who made his contributions earlier and who made only seven contributions, ends up with MORE money than A, who made 40 contributions but at a LATER TIME. The difference in the two is that B had seven more early years of compounding than A. Those seven early years were worth more than all of A's 33 additional contributions.
This is a study that I suggest you show to your kids. It's a study I've lived by, and I can tell you, "It works." You can work your compounding with muni-bonds, with a good money market fund, with T-bills or say with five-year T-notes.
Rule 2: DON'T LOSE MONEY: This may sound naive, but believe me it isn't. If you want to be wealthy, you must not lose money, or I should say must not lose BIG money. Absurd rule, silly rule? Maybe, but MOST PEOPLE LOSE MONEY in disastrous investments, gambling, rotten business deals, greed, poor timing. Yes, after almost five decades of investing and talking to investors, I can tell you that most people definitely DO lose money, lose big time – in the stock market, in options and futures, in real estate, in bad loans, in mindless gambling, and in their own business.
RULE 3: RICH MAN, POOR MAN: In the investment world the wealthy investor has one major advantage over the little guy, the stock market amateur and the neophyte trader. The advantage that the wealthy investor enjoys is that HE DOESN'T NEED THE MARKETS. I can't begin to tell you what a difference that makes, both in one's mental attitude and in the way one actually handles one's money.
The wealthy investor doesn't need the markets, because he already has all the income he needs. He has money coming in via bonds, T-bills, money market funds, stocks and real estate. In other words, the wealthy investor never feels pressured to "make money" in the market.
The wealthy investor tends to be an expert on values. When bonds are cheap and bond yields are irresistibly high, he buys bonds. When stocks are on the bargain table and stock yields are attractive, he buys stocks. When real estate is a great value, he buys real estate. When great art or fine jewelry or gold is on the "give away" table, he buys art or diamonds or gold. In other words, the wealthy investor puts his money where the great values are.
And if no outstanding values are available, the wealthy investors waits. He can afford to wait. He has money coming in daily, weekly, monthly. The wealthy investor knows what he is looking for, and he doesn't mind waiting months or even years for his next investment (they call that patience).
But what about the little guy? This fellow always feels pressured to "make money." And in return he's always pressuring the market to "do something" for him. But sadly, the market isn't interested. When the little guy isn't buying stocks offering 1% or 2% yields, he's off to
And because the little guy is trying to force the market to do something for him, he's a guaranteed loser. The little guy doesn't understand values so he constantly overpays. He doesn't comprehend the power of compounding, and he doesn't understand money. He's never heard the adage, "He who understands interest – earns it. He who doesn't understand interest – pays it." The little guy is the typical American, and he's deeply in debt.
The little guy is in hock up to his ears. As a result, he's always sweating – sweating to make payments on his house, his refrigerator, his car or his lawn mower. He's impatient, and he feels perpetually put upon. He tells himself that he has to make money – fast. And he dreams of those "big, juicy mega-bucks." In the end, the little guy wastes his money in the market, or he loses his money gambling, or he dribbles it away on senseless schemes. In short, this "money-nerd" spends his life dashing up the financial down-escalator.
But here's the ironic part of it. If, from the beginning, the little guy had adopted a strict policy of never spending more than he made, if he had taken his extra savings and compounded it in intelligent, income-producing securities, then in due time he'd have money coming in daily, weekly, monthly, just like the rich man. The little guy would have become a financial winner, instead of a pathetic loser.
RULE 4: VALUES: The only time the average investor should stray outside the basic compounding system is when a given market offers outstanding value. I judge an investment to be a great value when it offers (a) safety; (b) an attractive return; and (c) a good chance of appreciating in price. At all other times, the compounding route is safer and probably a lot more profitable, at least in the long run.
Reprinted with permission from Dow Theory Letters.
February 1, 2011
Copyright © 2011 Dow Theory Letters